Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 78449.940199 82823.067419 87193.471458 91885.707715 96777.654584 101724.223797 107100.839559
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 71448.700546 78155.383475 85043.816393 92637.706859 100764.203720 109189.736429 118575.415356
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 66387.066503 74691.601541 83407.169611 93215.329222 103924.488635 115241.320262 128083.049246
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 62130.508031 71591.201562 81702.466988 93278.870258 106130.741256 119925.813188 135816.935047
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 59426.135793 69902.686282 81276.364168 94490.867217 109369.467305 125551.213003 144427.142081
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 56180.348286 67367.580959 79690.549731 94203.134402 110755.261326 128973.359829 150467.096535
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 54424.373713 66384.246668 79728.495501 95631.692736 113974.950129 134374.612938 158678.788686
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 52556.415034 65148.295380 79368.775318 96506.049828 116480.953186 138909.478211 165873.160978
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 50403.907549 63464.627797 78388.047916 96565.902737 117966.901310 142217.052074 171620.891450
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 48327.371222 61771.978896 77307.196982 96424.326428 119145.963197 145115.459443 176858.074706
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 47425.208366 61434.355469 77783.464484 98083.933555 122414.002073 150432.077704 184919.044222
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 46547.157222 61075.574370 78192.688655 99629.796955 125526.204748 155561.161757 192775.086531
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 45203.580908 60117.427894 77864.549641 100290.272210 127604.414526 159517.867026 199328.784712
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 43571.455880 58744.706871 76983.406938 100238.751789 128797.650018 162411.834697 204628.815884
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 42281.295473 57751.051491 76524.635859 100666.206471 130543.782553 165953.037654 210705.849748
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 40877.366226 56561.004099 75775.601467 100692.745193 131766.135816 168842.283844 215991.818266
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 40150.380958 56207.548089 76048.387553 101971.991182 134521.163213 173592.261577 223551.290562
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 38734.162181 54913.091821 75089.042104 101664.205802 135274.958940 175879.458752 228101.757585
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 38217.726606 54773.111894 75582.383279 103181.939126 138305.551027 180969.416307 236111.444469
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 37471.781990 54302.147007 75627.745437 104110.908837 140586.772270 185136.709510 243002.084782
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 36391.009245 53350.275035 75020.106435 104174.481931 141752.909537 187909.986144 248169.204170
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 35272.119227 52312.653444 74269.271476 104024.050715 142623.692784 190300.947626 252858.148676
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 34994.685576 52404.137922 74992.492222 105787.236818 145948.363389 195783.003131 261440.920630